NOAA breaks with former NHC official, chooses earlier hurricane season forecast

In an unusual move this week, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) broke with the NOAA and the National Hurricane Center (NHC) of the National Hurricane Center and chose to schedule its official outlook for a month earlier than in previous years. The warning window for hurricane formation begins June 1, instead of June 1 and 10. The date would bring tropical season much closer to the June 1 start of summer.

WHY: Having the official outlook issued early means forecasters and experts have time to evaluate what is happening and make better predictions. They can use extended data and longer cycle forecasts to judge how far we’re likely to drift past the May 1 peak of the hurricane season, the Atlantic hurricane season peak of May 1. Many scientists say that has not always been a reliable predictor of hurricane patterns for the rest of the season.

CONSEQUENCES: There is no negative impact on the peak season since experts have already had some time to make other adjustments, including post-hypothetical observation on May 29. Hurricanes have been classified by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) since the mid-1930s and there is one month of pre-season storm activity.

The YEC forecast is issued with nearly two months until the hurricane season peak on June 1. The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30.

Source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

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